AMIDST Covid-19 predicament the world has experienced to-date and panic of sprouting Covid-19 variant rumoured to be more contagious and transmissible than the previous strain, travel restrictions and an appeal to be alert is currently changing daily, with each nation trying to ensure spread control is in place.
While many countries now require Covid-19 personal certificate report (PCR) certificate test a mandatory in order to enter through customs and immigration to avoid infecting others, others are proposing heavy fines up to 500 sterling pounds should one fail to present negative PCR certificate when required.
Studying approach and measures to ensure spread of Covid-19 is put under control sparked my thought when reading recent circular from the he Minister for Health, Community Development, Gender, Elderly and Children dated 4th January 2021.
Endorsed by the Minister of Health and Social welfare, Dr Dorothy Gwajima among other things the circular reiterated the danger the world is facing, impact caused, and need to continue take precautions to curb Covid-19 pandemic increase.
In-fact, bringing out update and what has been implication to date, and measures executed in addition how long it might take to get test results out, the Minister insisted on the need to take precaution, as many nations across the world are aligning themselves to try reducing spread of the disease by instituting protective measures to those involved in travelling for various reasons.
While Tanzania like other nations is trying to ensure it protects its people, by ensuring those few individuals travelling in and out of Tanzania, for numerous reasons, be it personal or for business or for leisure undertake negative covid-19 PCR test certificate, In my opinion, measures Tanzania is implementing upholds commitment to ensure Tanzania remains safe for its people, tourists and investors eying to visit Tanzania during the challenging time in world business as usual history.
Considerably, I wouldn’t hassle to discuss cost or fee linked with securing covid-19 PCR test certificate, whether is too tiny or is too excessive compared to what other nations are charging for such travel certificate, instead, examines the effects and what would ensure we are all safe in an attempt to join the rest of the world and our nation to put control on the disease to help returns to normalcy.
In fact, any measure undertaken to safeguard us while each nation is endeavouring to minimise spread of the pandemic, will play an important role to control the spread as the Oxford/AstraZeneca, Pfizer and modern vaccines, and undoubtedly many more excellent treatments or effective vaccine to enter health market gain thrust in future.
But, as far as Covid-19 pandemic is concerned, oneyear ends, another begins and undeniably events and crisessuch as the present Covid-19 pandemic- remain to pose tests to public authorities, both for rich and emerging nations. Each nation has its own short-term and long-term responses conscious that Covid-19 pandemic has provoked and for unforeseen future, will put a hole on worldwide health and economic plans and projections suggesting, there will be economic contraction, there will be projects drop and slow foreign direct investment etc.
to mention a few. Unquestionably changes brought by coronavirus spread are likely to amplify government policies, exert pressure on public finances by impacting the economy in many ways. Much as there will be huge economic impact triggering certain policy responses, in my view this epidemic is significantly distressing the public finances. Tax revenues will overtime fall and government spending will be increasing.
The Government’s budget deficit (the difference between its spending and revenues) will also be expected to reach high while government debt-the stock of its past borrowing might is increase as the Government might borrow more to fund its spending.
When we look more closely, foreign investment and global supply chains will continue to be dazed because besides the dramatic health and social implications encountered to date, the covid-19 crisis in itself will continue to cause severe economic disruptions, especially as new variant of covid-19 start to emerge in various countries.
Largely, I am of the view that a number of issues are areas will emerge and how one prepare will mean a lot to survive the effects of covid-19 pandemic. One, core function of FDI desirability will be disturbed profoundly as less FDI will be available globally although some FDI projects that were prepared over years or decided upon prior to the crisis could be realised but without with delays.
This view could see new expressions of interest from investors registered dropping significantly that could also have an impact on pipeline of new projects aligned for financing. Two, level-headed enterprises, small, medium or large, will reconsider their supply chains in the medium and long run in light of covid-19.
I am foreseeing the direction of changes to depend fundamentally on how enterprises will balance risk-mitigation with cost-efficiency, among others. A more methodical assessment of risk of disruptions, in my view might incite shortening of value chains and sourcing or resilience to location-specific shocks through geographic expansion.
Three, governments across the world, including Tanzania have started wide-ranging measures to combat the negative economic effects of the crisis. Critically, looking at these measures, the fiscal incentives publicised to date have meant at cushioning the impact of the drop in economic pursuit and maintaining productive capacity that harbours or offers employment opportunities to many.
Four, much as it might not be noticeable to many, as governments come to grips with the challenges posed by the dip across strategic sectors, there will be increased pressure on government coffers. This in my opinion may mean public budget cuts and an enlarged pressure to do more with less, including through reallocating resources and undertaking new tasks.
In this context, governments may shift their priorities and reconsider their approach on new investment and instead concentrate to accomplish what has already started. In a nutshell, while the covid-19 and variant covid-19 crisis continues to spread on a scale never before seen, it is high time for government and policy makers to start thinking of what comes next.
The economic effects of the covid-19 crisis for the emerging and developing markets are already prohibitive and there is a fear that few if any of these economies can simply go back to work when the virus has been side-lined by vaccine that is already in the market and in use.
There will be significant changes in the roles of governments in wrestling with the pandemic. Certainly the huge fiscal cost to developed markets of the covid-19 crisis, governments if to sustain their growth will need to work with aligned private sector investors more closely to avoid a debt crisis and the potential for zombie growth in the future.
In Tanzania unlike other nations is luck for not to have lockdown on economic activities since day one of the crisis. A major response to covid-19 elsewhere has been for governments to enforce lockdowns, which in turn requires them to subsidize enterprises and if a need arises pay certain stipends to citizens not working.
As a result, although not many might agree with my view, sovereign debt levels are rising everywhere, in many cases from an already sizeable base in addition to many banks and enterprises pushing for debt repayments or restructuring aimed helping these business in the short-run but also compounding overall levels of debt.
The bottom line is that since most countries cannot simply print paper to finance these stabilising payments, the net effect, in long run is a large increase in liabilities with relatively little prospect of a strong recovery when it is deemed safe to restart the economies.