Nigeria: 2023 – Poll Shows Kwara Governor Favourite to Win

The poll shows the incumbent governor is the favourite to win the governorship election

With 30 per cent of the registered voters in the state saying they will vote for him in next year’s governorship election, Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq is poised to be re-elected in Kwara State, a poll conducted by NOIPolls Limited and commissioned by the Anap Foundation has revealed.

In a statement signed by Atedo Peterside, the president of Anap Foundation, Mr Abdulrazaq is at least 19 points ahead of his closest rival, Shuaibu Yaman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the poll revealed.

While the poll showed only 10 per cent of registered voters said they will be voting for Mr Yaman in 2023, just 3 per cent of the respondents said they will vote for Hakeem Oladimeji, the candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Thirty-One per cent of those polled said they are still undecided.

The poll question, conducted in October, was “Suppose the governorship election is being conducted today, who are you likely to vote for?”

“Governor AbdulRahman’s 19 per cent-point lead at this early stage is very significant and separates him from a leading pack of candidates scoring 30 per cent, 1 1per cent and 3 per cent.

“Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 31per cent and 19 per cent respectively.

“The gender split of undecided voters shows that 36 per cent of women is undecided versus 26per cent of male voters,” Mr Peterside said in the statement.

The senatorial district distribution of the outcome of the poll revealed that Mr AbdulRazaq scored 39 per cent in Kwara North, 26 per cent in Kwara Central and 28 per cent in Kwara South, while Mr Yaman got 12 per cent, 10 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. Mr Olajide scored 3 per cent, 4 per cent and 3 per cent from the districts respectively.

The combined score of other candidates showed 4 per cent, 2 per cent and 2 per cent for Kwara North, Kwara Central and Kwara South. Twenty-seven per cent of respondents from Kwara North, 37per cent from Kwara Central and 25per cent from Kwara South said they are undecided.

Two per cent of the respondents in Kwara North said they will not vote during the election. Also, in Kwara central 2 per cent, and 4 per cent in Kwara South said they will not vote for any of the candidates. Thirteen 13 per cent, 19 per cent and 27per cent in Kwara North, Central and South refused to answer the poll question.

“The percentage of registered voters is as follows in each of the districts – 93per cent in Kwara North, 95per cent in Kwara Central, and 94per cent in Kwara South,” Mr Peterside said.

The poll also revealed that the three top reasons given for choosing the incumbent governor were: good first tenure (38per cent), Continuity (27per cent), Capacity and integrity (15per cent) and better welfare for civil servants (5per cent).

“While this Governorship Poll result is very significant, it is important to remember that undecided/swing voters can still influence the outcome as they will help decide which candidate emerges as Governor of Kwara State in the 2023 governorship elections.

“In summary, our October 2022 Polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner as the undecided voters are enough to turn the tables.

“However, Anap Foundation has concluded that the trends are clear enough to establish the front runners and so our subsequent polls will concentrate on the leading candidates only,” Mr Peterside added.


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