Nigeria’s Terms of Trade Records 4th Consecutive Quarterly Decline

The Nigeria’s Terms of Trade (ToT), for all commodities, recorded a light decline of 0.03 percentage points in the third quarter of 2023, Q3’23. TOT measures a the value of the country’s trade with other countries where a decline indicates higher value of imports against exports.

The Q3’23 performance indicates a lower rate of decline with the implication that the fourth quarter, Q4’23, may likely show the indices in positive territory.

Findings from the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, data on Commodity Prices Indices and Terms of Trade showed that the ToT has been on a negative trend since Q3’22 of last year when it recorded a fall of 0.50 percentage points from an increase of 0.11 percentage points in Q2’22.

In its Q3 ’23 Commodity Prices Indices and ToT report released yesterday, NBS said that the decline in Q3’23 was as a result of a 0.04 percentage points decline in ToT in September.

The bureau also said that the All Commodity Group Import Index increased by 0.21 per cent in Q3’23 and its Export Index increased by 0.18 per cent.

“The All-Commodity Terms of Trade for July, August, and September 2023 stood at 102.46 per cent, 102.47 per cent, and 102.43 per cent, respectively.

“The All-Commodity Group Terms of Trade increased by 0.01 per cent points in August and decreased by 0.04 per cent points in September resulting in a decrease of 0.03 per cent points between July and September 2023.

“The All Commodity Group Import Index increased by 0.21 per cent between July and September 2023.

“This can be attributed to the increases in the change in the prices of products of Textiles and textile articles” by +0.37 per cent, “Mineral products” by 0.36 per cent points and “Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and articles” by 0.29 per cent points.

“The All-Commodity Group Export Index increased by 0.18 per cent between July and September 2023.

“This is due to changes in the prices of Boilers, machinery, and appliances; parts thereof (0.36), Vehicles, aircraft, and parts thereof; vessels etc (0.34), Mineral Products (+0.31) and Plastic, rubber, and articles thereof (0.22).”

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