Ondo State will have three new faces at the Senate from June as none of the incumbents or past senators is a candidate in the 25 February senatorial elections.
Like other voters across the 36 states of the federation and the FCT, the electorate in Ondo State, south-west Nigeria, will file out on 25 February to elect the senators to represent their three districts in the 10th Senate that will be inaugurated in June.
The three senators will be first-timers in the senate as none of the current or past senators from the state will be returning. Out of the current 109 senators in the ninth Senate, at least 58 of them will not be returning, PREMIUM TIMES reported.
The high rate of turnover of new senators in every election cycle, according to experts in parliamentary studies, denies the Senate the sort of institutional memory it needs to come up with quality and impactful legislation. The Nigerian Senate has one of the lowest retention rates for senators globally, a study revealed.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) put the total number of registered voters in Ondo State at slightly above two million. As of 16 December 2022, only about 1.9 million permanent voters cards (PVCs) had been produced for the state. Out of these, over 1.5 million had been collected and over 300,000 were uncollected. The voters are spread across the 203 wards in the 18 local council areas of the state. Ondo has 3,933 polling booths.
Ondo is one of the eight states where there a governorship election will not hold on 11 March. The incumbent governor, Rotimi Akeredolu, will complete his second term in office in 2024.
Although some of the fringe political parties have presented candidates for the senatorial elections, residents believe that only the candidates of the two dominant parties – the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) – will be the main contenders for the three senatorial seats in the state.
Given the dominance of the two parties in all the nooks and crannies of the state, residents are fixated on the candidates of the parties while they spare little or no attention to the candidates of the other parties, which many believe are special purpose vehicles (SPVs) for those who lost out in the primaries of the two behemoths (PDP and APC).
Ondo South:
The race is between Jimoh Ibrahim of the APC and Agboola Ajayi of the PDP. No other candidate comes close to the duo which implies that the probability of a dark horse emerging as the senator for the district is zero.
In this oil-rich district lacking in critical infrastructure and suffering from arrested development over the years, voters have a binary choice to make between Mr Ibrahim, a controversial businessman who has been constant Iike the Northern Star in the political firmament of the district for over two decades, and Mr Ajayi, the immediate past deputy governor of the state who is also a smooth political operator and has held one elective office after the other since the country returned to civil rule in 1999.
Jimoh Ibrahim:
Though a late entrant into the race, he predictably won the APC primaries because he had a commanding influence on a vast majority of party delegates.
The leader of the party in the state, Governor Akeredolu, reportedly supported him, according to multiple sources familiar with the inner dealings that facilitated his emergence as the flag bearer of the party.
Also, in the days and weeks leading to the contest, the state chairperson of the party, Ade Adetimehin, did not mince words about where his tent was pitched. The wife of the governor, Betty Anyanwu-Akeredolu, reportedly also preferred Mr Ibrahim as against the stance of some stakeholders in the party who were opposed to his choice.
While the primary contest is an internal affair of the party, the main election is the real deal as it will be the second time the businessman, who recently bagged a PhD from Cambridge University, United Kingdom, will be standing in a general election in the state. He was on the ballot in 2003 as the governorship candidate of the defunct ANPP but came a distant third in the election. He ran a very colourful campaign then. But for the appellate court decision that gave the governorship ticket of the PDP in 2016 to Eyitayo Jegede, he would have also been the flag bearer of the party.
Rich, expressive, bold, educated, and highly connected at home and abroad, Mr Ibrahim has the means to mobilise supporters and rally the masses to vote for him in the election. He also has the advantage of the APC being the ruling party in the state, although that could also be an albatross in view of the misgivings Nigerians are currently expressing against the party.
Mr Ibrahim has been crisscrossing the six local government areas that make up the district, running an electrifying campaign, making promises to the voters and also racking up endorsements from traditional rulers, key personalities and groups in the district. Translating the endorsements into votes on Election Day is another issue, however.
All said, Mr Ibrahim, a former PDP chieftain, has a formidable challenge ahead of him. The district remains a stronghold of the PDP with strong and influential chieftains and die-hard supporters. The incumbent senator, Nicholas Tofowomo, is PDP, though it is uncertain yet if he will support the man who snatched the ticket from him at the primary, a result he litigated against up to the Supreme Court but lost.
Aside from the solid footing of the PDP in the district, Mr Ibrahim is perceived as arrogant and some think he may become inaccessible if elected senator. Some also feel that despite his wealth, he has not done much in his private capacities to bring development to the district. However, he is currently building a university in his hometown, Igbotako in the Okitipupa Local Government Area of the state.
Mr Ibrahim is also fighting a battle within his party. The feelers are that some stakeholders in the party, including those holding senior appointments in the administration of Governor Akeredolu, are either aloof, disenchanted with him or surreptitiously working for the opposition to ensure that he loses in the 25 February election.
All said, Mr Ibrahim has a fair chance to win the election.
Agboola Ajayi:
A smooth political operator, he contested the 2020 governorship election on the platform of the ZLP against his former principal, Governor Akeredolu, but registered an abysmal performance, failing to win the majority votes in any of the 18 council areas of the state, including his own Ese- Odo.
He is a grassroots politician with tentacles spread everywhere. He was a member of the House of Representatives between 2007 and 2011 where he was chairman of the crucial NDDC Committee. Before then, he was elected the chairperson of Ese-Odo LGA and had previously served as a supervisory councillor in the same council in a previous administration.
In his quest for power, like some nomadic politicians, he sojourned in the PDP, found solace in the APC where he became Deputy Governor, returned to the PDP again after falling out with Mr Akeredolu, nested briefly in the ZLP before returning home to the PDP.
One major mileage Mr Ajayi has going into the election is that the PDP is a household name in the district and also has the advantage of producing the incumbent senator. The party also has in its rank tested politicians such as Boluwaji Kunlere, a former senator; Eddy Olafeso, a former Vice Chairman of the PDP – South-west; Jumoke Akindele, a former Speaker of Ondo State House of Assembly; an ex-chairperson of Federal Character Commission, Abayomi Sheba; Mike Omogbehin, a former House of Reps member; Iroju Ogundeji, and many others with strong following in the district.
That said, much as the PDP is strong in the district, Mr Ajayi has to unite the various tendencies within the party, especially the faction led by the incumbent senator, Mr Tofowomo, who wanted him disqualified from the election over claims that Mr Ajayi paraded fake credentials and false age. The courts, up to the supreme court, did not examine the merit of the petition as they said Mr Tofowomo filed it out of time.
Mr Ajayi has since reached out to Mr Tofowomo, whose performance in office is rated as modest. But Mr Tofowomo has not publicly identified with Mr Ajayi nor his aspiration to succeed him. Mr Ajayi defeated Mr Tofowomo in the keenly contested primaries by a margin of four votes – 78 against 74.
Besides the seeming disunity in the party, Mr Ajayi is also perceived in some quarters as being inordinately ambitious, hence, his serial movements across parties in the last few years. There are those in the PDP who feel that had he not joined forces with Mr Akeredolu in the 2016 election, the PDP might not have lost the election.
Some critics of Mr Ajayi said he is neither expressive nor eloquent, and hence, lacks the necessary verbal facility to make robust contributions to motions and debates that can help advance good governance in the country. At best, they contend that he will be an obscure senator because of his alleged lack of depth on policy issues.
At the home front, Mr Ajayi has to contend with Donald Ojogo, a former political ally in the same Ese Odo LGA; Olusola Oke, a former governorship candidate; Gbenga Edema, Ondo State representative in NDDC, and the incumbent deputy governor, Lucky Ayeidatiwa who have all vowed to deliver the zone to their APC.
The former deputy governor also has a fair chance to win the election.
Ondo Central: Race between two sons of Akure
The battle in Ondo Central is between two senior lawyers and indigenes of Akure, the Ondo State capital. The two, who are also Senior Advocates of Nigeria (SAN), come from two prominent families in Akure.
Interestingly, no indigene of Akure in Akure South Local Government Area, the area with the highest voting capacity in Ondo Central, has been a senator of the district since the return of democracy in 1999. The agitation by Akure to have one of its own may have prompted the two dominant parties to produce the two lawyers as their candidates for the February polls.
Ifedayo Adedipe
He is the candidate for the PDP. In a shocking move, he defeated the incumbent senator, Ayo Akinyelure, a two-term senator adjudged to have recorded a modest performance in office, in the party’s primary election last year and others.
Mr Akinyelure, from Idanre, had through proxies blamed a former governor of the state, Olusegun Mimiko, for his loss in the election.
Many party insiders believe Mr Mimiko contributed significantly to the emergence of Mr Adedipe, a Port Harcourt-based lawyer, as the candidate of the PDP in the district.
Mr Adedipe, a graduate of Law from the University of Ife, now Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Osun State, is new on the political turf in Ondo State. He is believed to be enjoying the support of Mr Mimiko who has promised to deliver bulk votes from Ondo East and West, his strongholds, to him.
Local analysts say the votes in Akure South will be evenly divided between him and the candidate of the APC, Adeniyi Adegbonmire. They contend that whoever will win the election will do so principally with votes from Idanre, Ifedore, Ondo and Akure North.
Eyitayo Jegede, another Senior Advocate, who is from Akure and the 2020 gubernatorial candidate of the PDP, will also mobilise support for Mr Adedipe as he would not want the party to lose in the district because of his own rumoured ambition to vie for the governorship seat again in 2024
For now, there’s nothing to show that Mr Akinyelure is canvassing support for Mr Adedipe in his Idanre enclave. Perhaps he is still bitter over his loss in the primaries he said was manipulated against him.
Other things being equal, Mr Adedipe, who said he will never be involved in vote-buying, has a bright chance to win the election.
Adeniyi Adegbonmire
Young and urbane, the senior lawyer is not entirely a newcomer as he was a governorship aspirant in the APC in the 2016 primary election, which he lost to Mr Akeredolu.
He, like Mr Adedipe, is also from a reputable family in the Akure kingdom, also co-alumna of the Faculty of Law at Obafemi Awolowo University.
Many observers believe Mr Akeredolu enabled his emergence as the candidate of the APC in last year’s primaries where he defeated the likes of Tayo Alasoadura, who was the senator for the district between 2015 and 2019. The latter resigned as minister of state from the Federal Executive Council to participate in the primaries.
Mr Adegbonmire is leveraging his family connections to win the election in addition to being the candidate of the ruling party in the state. Like Mr Adedipe, Mr Adegbonmire is also banking on critical stakeholders and local chieftains of the party and the youth demographic to win the election.
His chances are fair if things go to plan for the APC.
Ondo North:
Just like Ondo South is the strongest base of the PDP in the state, Ondo North is the strongest enclave of the APC.
Against the foregoing, if there is any district where the APC is sure to win a senatorial election, it is certainly this, given the array of prominent chieftains of the party and the apparent unity they seem to have, at least, as far as the senatorial election is concerned, although some infighting within the party is yet to be resolved including of the House of Representatives tickets in the district.
The sitting senator for the district, Ajayi Boroffice, who declined to participate in the party primaries last year because of his presidential ambition, which he later aborted, has been in the Senate since 2011. By June 2023, he would have done 12 unbroken years as a senator. He is currently the deputy majority leader of the Senate and the Asiwaju of Akokoland, comprising four local government areas.
Jide Ipinsagba
The candidate of the APC, Jide Ipinsagba, a pastor and businessman, enjoys the support of Mr Boroffice, a professor and former presidential aspirant. He is said to be well-loved across the party just as the governor, Mr Akeredolu, is also reportedly backing him to win the election.
Mr Ipinsagba, a perennial aspirant and candidate, enjoys the benefit of the APC being the ruling party in the state and also the extensive local appeal the party has in the district. This is in addition to the fact that his hometown, Ikare Akoko, in the Akoko North East LGA, has never produced a senator despite its large population.
He has the resources to also mobilise support and get logistics that will help him actualise his ambition, coupled with the fact that his major challenger in the party’s primaries, Alex Ajipe, has vowed to campaign for him so that the party can retain the seat come 25 February.
Mr Ipinsagba has promised the people of the district quality representation if elected.
Except if the unexpected happens, he is highly favoured to win the election.
Adetokunbo Modupe
Young, vibrant, urbane and cultured, he has consistently been a PDP chieftain in Ondo State where he is well-loved by critical stakeholders of the party and supporters of the party. No wonder observers were not shocked that he emerged as the candidate of the party for Ondo North in the primary election conducted last year. He was an aspirant in the 2019 primaries but lost out in the contest.
The Public Relations expert and entrepreneur enjoys strong support from the youth in the district because they believe he speaks to their individual and collective aspirations. He has promised to offer purposeful and quality representation if given the nod to serve. It is, however, unsure if the support will translate into huge votes for him in the election because the PDP does not enjoy much support in the district.
Mr Modupe’s chances of winning the election are frankly not as bright as the credentials and certifications he parades. He is from Owo in Owo Local Government Area, the same as Governor Akeredolu, who is not only the leader of the APC in Ondo State but also the South-west leader of the Tinubu/Shettima Presidential Campaign in the zone.
The overriding sentiment in the district is that Owo cannot produce the governor of the state, who is yet to conclude his term and still produce the senator to represent the district. This sentiment appears to be a major hurdle to Mr Modupe’s ambition.