WHILE left with virtually four months before the country celebrates its 60th independence on 9th December, DAILY NEWS reporter ABDUEL ELINAZA talks to Dr HILDEBRAND SHAYO, an economist and investment banker, on the need to create job opportunities, amid not only from prevailing economic growth but within FYDP III framework.
Question: Tanzania has made into the lower part of middle-income status and without a robust strategy to create more jobs space may remain in the same slot. This may backpedal efforts to jump into high middle-income status. What should be done differently on this matter?
Answer: The initial entry point in my view would be for politicians and officials in the government decision corridors to recognize the adverse costs of a strong obsession with economic growth, notwithstanding the source of the growth and its job creation consequence.
What it means is that growth is a crucial condition.
However, it can only permit the adequate condition test if it converts into the generation of industrious and high-earning jobs. This needs a re-routing of growth strategy and if I may be specific towards the advancement of industrial activities that are strongly linked with agriculture.
Question: What do you reckon to be a good pointer on dawdling occupation growth in the country?
Answer: I wouldn’t like to prompt heated debate amongst intellectuals, but I am of the view that a key pointer of the health of an economy is the ability and availability of having robust plans that can lead to jobs and their quality of that jobs.
Question: Has employment growth in the country based on NBS data satisfactory?
Answer: Employment growth in the country has largely been somewhat undisturbed than economic growth. To me, this raises concerns about the quality of the country’s growth in future to accommodate the growing young population some graduating from institutions from college to university level.
Analysis of NBS data indicates this gap well. What I can say is that as a country we need to reach a point that every one percent of annual economic growth must yield higher percentage growth of total employment.
Question: Trend shows that employment creation in Tanzania of late is more on informal sectors. Does this trend pose a challenge?
Answer: My main worry for personnel in the emerging informal sector and what I could call exposed employment arrangement is lack formal work arrangements or infrastructure. Though I am aware of many issues in this regard key is adequate social security, because the working poverty rate, if there are no vigorous plans to give them social security as they age, will remain a challenge to this nation.
Question: What do you consider will boost economic growth amidst the debated issue of shortage of skills?
Answer: Economic growth and job creation to those who might not be aware hang on the size and quality of the labour force. Within this link, the availability of human resources in the right quantity and quality form the underpinning of growth and development. Tanzania’s population is in my view conservatively likely to be in line with NBS statistics that indicate that from 2013 to 2035, it is expected that the population growth of the country will decrease (see NBS’s national population projection, February 2018).
Further examination of NBS data shows that the national projections population growth rate will decrease from 3.1% in 2013 (with a population of 46,356,279) to 2.8% in 2035 (with a population of 89,204,781). While Tanzania Mainland population growth rate will decrease from 3.1% in 2013 to 2.8% in 2035, in the isles of Zanzibar, the population growth rate will decrease from 3.4% in 2013 to 1.9% in 2035. With these projections, one thing is clear skills issues cannot be overlooked.
Question: Are you suggesting that Tanzania need more skilled professionals?
Answer: This could be an arguable question subject on which angle one look at it. Tanzania has given several training institutions and our long history in my view has a deficiency of high skilled professionals. It is also short of semi-specialised skills, such as technical and vocational skills.
Subjective evidence suggests that amongst investors looking to invest here in Tanzania in one way or another issue of skills shortage has always been raised.
I wouldn’t be surprised when UgandaTanzania crude pipeline construction kicks off, there could be specific skills that can be difficult to obtain domestically.
These might include engineers, drillers, and production and operation workers. The industry in this case like other sectors will have no choice but rely on people from other countries.
There are estimated supply deficits in graduates in certain careers e.g. medicine and healthiness, manufacturing and technical skills, contract negotiations and business organisation, and an excess of graduates in arts/social sciences.
Many might deny this fact, but I think that there is largely linked to the fact that Tanzania’s education system to date tends to yield humanities graduates over what the economy requires amidst emerging new normal.
Scientists, engineers, and technologists needed for the manufacturing sector are produced in limited numbers. Undoubtedly, even though some jobs have been created in response to economic growth, most have happened in the informal sector.
Cautiousness is the low quality of workers produced by the education system means a chunk of the labour force cannot access formal sector jobs that offer better pay and working conditions who can then contribute more taxes to help the government-run its program.
Question: Now what do you consider to be a new growth strategy for the country?
Answer: Attaining growth strategy for Tanzania given our circumstance one demand side, need determination that would support nurturing productivity, particularly in agriculture, should be the right of way of policy towards more inclusive growth. In my outlook, there is a need for more targeted investment in areas that would promote value addition and commercial agricultural activities where the potential for job creation is high.
The business working setting must also be addressed. Macroeconomic unpredictability climaxing in high-interest rates, and high unjustifiable taxes coupled with chronic dishonesty make industrialists less competitive.
This makes them more flimsy within a trade setting where businesses face regional and global competition.
The business setting could also be enhanced if the country’s institutional arrangements and regulatory framework are properly streamlined in line with best practices that have proved effective somewhere. On the supply side, a low feature of labour needs serious policy consideration.
Education and skills development have seen some enlargement, but the link between education and productivity need to be clearer.
A wide-ranging analysis of the education system is needed to assess the medium and long term relevance of education and skills development over and above gathering in a conference to seek views on how the education system can be improved
Question: What do you think should be key policy interventions that would improve productivity let say in agriculture?
Answer: Given some sectors are performing relatively better the might be a need to leverage the strong growth performance of low labour engagement sectors of mining and the like to boost growth in other sectors, by channelling returns from these sectors into infrastructure to support growth in agriculture and manufacturing.
Equally, agriculture research funding through enhancement in agriculture extension services need to be heightened, more development of irrigation schemes to promote uninterrupted farming activities will be needed to help the provision of guaranteed price to farmers.