To illustrate how seemingly random events can be connected, there is a saying that the flap of a butterfly’s wings in the Amazon rainforest can cause a hurricane off the coast of Florida. This might go some way to understanding how the case of Venezuelan diplomat Alex Saab, detained for over 440 days on the small island of Sal, off the West Coast of Africa and whose extradition to the United States is due to be decided any day now, could have a dramatic impact on the talks currently underway between President Maduro and the Venezuelan opposition.
All the signs are that the current discussions between the government of President Nicolas Maduro and the Venezuelan opposition, led by Juan Guaido, are making progress but there is no sign of any breakthrough.
The talks, which are being held in the Mexico City under the stewardship of the Government of Norway, which has a long record of brokering such negotiations, come at a crucial time for Venezuela which is due to hold national elections in November this year. Most observers state that given the long history of disagreement between the two sides, there is only a small chance of a significant development that would come in time to have any impact on the November polls for numerous mayors and governorships, which the ruling party of President Maduro is expected to win comfortably.
What is clear, however, is that the Guaido-led opposition is not as united as it once was and with signs of economic recovery which has been built on a de facto dollarization of the economy, time may be running out for opposition to garner any significant concessions from President Maduro. Shops in Caracas now have goods to sell, and Venezuela is heading for its first year of positive GDP growth in almost a decade.
The economic gains are coming despite ongoing unilateral sanctions being imposed by the United States. Whilst there is no sign at all that the United States might relax the sanctions regime, which it has imposed since President Obama’s second term, questions are being asked about the effectiveness of those sanctions as well as the amount of political capital that the United Sates must expend for the sanctions to be observed by the global banking and trade sectors
All of this brings us back to the issue of Cape Verde’s ongoing illegal detention of Venezuelan diplomat Alex Saab since 12 June 2020. Saab was undertaking a humanitarian Special Mission to Iran and was arrested whilst making a refuelling stop by Cape Verde at the request of the United States. Saab, who is a lawfully appointed diplomat and who was expected by Iran in such capacity, has been fighting the extradition request of the United States for more than 440 days. Alex Saab’s case has now reached the Constitutional Court, which is the apex court of the Cape Verde legal system.
Sources have indicated that there are rumours that the United States has been applying significant pressure on the government of Prime Minister Ulisses Correia as well as members of the judiciary to achieve Alex Saab’s extradition. Such an outcome could in turn have a negative impact on the discussions currently underway in Mexico City. Cape Verde is fully aware of the important role that Alex Saab has fulfilled for the government of President Maduro therefore what good would be achieved if Cape Verde, having initially interfered by arresting a lawfully appointed diplomat, were now to intervene once again in the domestic political affairs of Venezuela?
Cape Verde has been promised much if it succumbs to the will of the United States. Cape Verde has worked hard to build a reputation as a country that is a bastion of democracy in Africa, that honours its treaty obligations and the rule of international law. Nothing that may have been offered can justify the loss of our reputation and faith of the people in the Guardians of the Constitution.