Ethiopia is heading in a dangerous direction. Everything must be done to maintain the peace
Among the competing factions poised against the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia, there seems to be a contest as to who first gets to Addis Ababa, the nation’s capital. Significantly, the forces of the Tigrayan Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) are only less than 250 kilometers away.
The imminent meltdown in Ethiopia is the culmination of a protracted confrontation between the government and the TPLF, which until three years ago was the de facto ruling party in the country. It was hounded out of power by a populist revolt that brought Abiy Ahmed to power. The TPLF had for a long time been caught in between Ethiopia’s federal forces and those of Eritrea, Ethiopia’s northern neighbour with whom Abiy made peace. This was a major feat of national consolidation and regional reconciliation which earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
Ironically, it took only a year after winning the Peace Prize for Abiy to ignite the fire that has led his country to a war that has so far attracted grave international concern mostly on account of human rights abuse. Several accounts indicate that Ethiopian forces have committed many infractions ranging from summary executions to serial rape of locals. The strategy of blockades to cut off major parts of the Tigray region from food and humanitarian supplies has raised the possibility of famine as large populations have been displaced and deprived of food and essential supplies. The TPLF forces have themselves engaged in torture and killings of innocent civilians in their theatres of operation.
As a typical African country in which competing ethnic rivalries have remained despite efforts to forge national unity, the Ethiopian crisis has raked up latent frictions. The Amharas and Oromos which are the largest ethnic groups in the country have stated counter claims on the ownership of Addis Ababa and have begun to mobilise their forces in the imminent possibility of a Tigrayan invasion of the city. If the current trend persists and prevails, the possibility that Ethiopian could slide into a bloody civil strife characterised by interethnic nastiness in different directions is indeed clear and present.
The international community has reasons to be deeply worried about Ethiopia’s plight. The United States has severed trade concessions on the import of Ethiopian goods under the long-standing African Growth Opportunities Act (AGOA). The European Union is expected to impose similar sanctions to get Abiy more interested in a negotiated settlement. China which has substantial infrastructure financing and construction business interests in Ethiopia has so far done little to discourage Abiy from his stubborn belligerence and uncompromising attitude to a peaceful settlement. Instead, the Prime Minister remains optimistic that his forces will prevail even if his rhetoric of ethnic denigration of the Tigrayans has aggravated rather than assuaged the feelings fuelling the animosities. While that rhetoric persists, the Tigrayan and other forces continue their advance on Addis Ababa with clear catastrophic consequences.
The African Union (AU) whose headquarters remains in Addis Ababa is yet to take a stand. With a gleaming glass tower headquarters donated by the Chinese, the AU has been habitually inert in the settlement of African disputes. It is yet to evolve a mechanism for summoning national military contingents to give effect to its countless resolutions on past African disputes even where minimum intervention could have yielded the desirable outcome. The United Nations has so far limited its concern in the Ethiopian crisis to matters of human rights and humanitarian assistance. But as the situation worsens and Addis Ababa is increasingly besieged, it is in the best interest of the AU and UN to quickly cobble a peace plan to save Ethiopia the embarrassment of waging pitched battles in the streets of its historically important capital city.
The deteriorating situation in Ethiopia is a matter of significant concern for Africa. Coming on the heels of a spate of military coups in West Africa (Sudan, Mali, Guinea, and Chad), the situation in Ethiopia has once again put the future of Africa on the world stage for the wrong reasons. The continent’s prospects as an area of promise for either economic development or democratic progress are now in serious doubt. The headline around the world a few years ago was “Africa Rising”. Recent events are tending towards compelling a change to something more like: “Africa failing again”.