“For us there is no rational narrative behind terrorist actions. What we are facing is pure banditry driven by others’ greed against a nation that is about to make the qualitative and quantitative leap”, President Filipe Nyusi told parliament (AR) 16 December in his State of the Nation address. He rejected out of hand research and reports showing the importance of the grievances linked to growing poverty and inequality.
“The joint operations of the Mozambican, SADC and Rwandan armed forces have registered remarkable progress with immediate impact in neutralising the combative capacity of the terrorists,” Nyusi said. He added that the number of insurgent attacks had dropped substantially, 245 insurgents had been captured, and 200 killed – including 10 named leaders, “who besides being military commanders were radical and extremist ideologues.” One was “Rajabo Fakir, considered number three in the hierarchy, who was put out of action on 18 November”.
He admitted that insurgents had moved into Niassa, but said there should be “no panic” because “the Defence and Security Forces already control the movements of these men.” He stressed it is not yet safe for displaced people to return: “we have always said that we are cleaning up and you only go to a house when it is clean”. (@Verdade, 16 Dec)
Hard days are ahead for regime critics and investigative journalists predicts Carta
“Difficult days are ahead for those who have a critical voice against the government of the day. And also for those who ‘leak’ information to newspapers and social networks and for journalists who devote themselves to investigation,” reports Carta de Moçambique (16 Dec).
The military is building “profiles” of figures who disturb the ruling system, including investigative journalists, political opponents, social activists and academics, Carta says. Recently military cadres have had training on monitoring and the use of a security system, called celebrity, which allows them to track and listen to calls, read messages on mobile phones and other electronic devices remotely. This is different from the Pegasus spy system, developed by the Israeli company NSO Group and which was blacklisted by the US Government for suspicions of spying on government officials, and which is apparently being used by Rwanda.
This may be linked to a 21 September Council of Ministers announcement of an $89 mn Credit Agreement with the Exim Bank of Korea for the Public Security Management Information System (SIGESP, Sistema de Informaçao de Gestao de Segurança Pública) to track criminals and critics. (Carta de Moçambique, 16 Dec, in English on https://bit.ly/Moz-hard-day)
Mozambican civil society has been downgraded from ‘obstructed’ to ‘repressed’ by CIVICUS, a Johannesburg-based global alliance of civil society organisations. This reflects concerns about the deterioration of civic freedoms during the COVID-19 pandemic, human rights violations worsened by the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, and press freedom under attack with physical attacks, threats against and arbitrary detentions of journalists, and attacks of media outlets.
CIVICUS “is particularly concerned about the deterioration of press freedom in the country, including restrictions in the draft media and broadcasting laws, physical attacks against journalists and attempts to stifle independent voices in Mozambique.” It “is also concerned about acts of intimidation, harassment, threats against civil society and journalists.” https://findings2021.monitor.civicus.org/country-ratings/mozambique.html and https://monitor.civicus.org/country/mozambique/
Mozambique was not invited to President Biden’s 9-10 December “Summit for Democracy”. Also not invited were Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Rwanda. In contrast, Angola, Zambia, Botswana and South Africa were invited. https://www.state.gov/summit-for-democracy/
$51 bn of foreign investment, but how much is real?
Mozambique has told the IMF that is it currently home to $51 billion of foreign direct investment. But investing countries only report $15 bn invested in Mozambique. Furthermore, nearly all of the “investment” reported by Mozambique is actually borrowed by the companies, or is assets or money laundered via Mauritius. Only $5.5 bn is actual foreign investment – one tenth of what the IMF suggests. (IMF Coordinated Direct Investment Survey, 8 Dec 2021, https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=61227424)
The table shows Mozambique’s reported inward investment. South Africa is the biggest foreign investor, with $12 bn, of which $10 bn is borrowed. The local tax haven Mauritius comes next at $8 bn, of which $4.3 bn is said to be equity. But an increasing number of Mozambican companies are moving off shore to Mauritius, so this “foreign equity” is largely Mozambican property rebranded in Mauritius. Some will also be money laundering, with a Mauritius company owned by Mozambicans using illegal money to buy property in Mozambique as a way of laundering the money.
United Arab Emirates (UAE) comes next. It is a tax haven so some money will be laundered, but UAE is also investing oil money in Africa. However, on the basis of a claimed total investment of $5.7 bn, UAE investors have borrowed $6.6 bn, which sounds dubious.
Mozambique says Portugal and UK each have more than $1 bn of equity, some of which may date back to the colonial era.
Mozambique says India, Brazil, Belgium, China and Tanzania all have large investments – but entirely with borrowed money.
These numbers are as reported by Mozambique. Investing countries report a much smaller $15 bn investment in Mozambique. The UK reports only $113 mn investment in Mozambique, while Mozambique says the UK has invested $4 bn. Similarly South Africa reports $3 bn investment in Mozambique while Mozambique claims $12 bn. India reports only $33 mn investment in Mozambique while Mozambique claims $4.5 bn from India. https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=60564262
Interestingly, China and Ireland are the only countries to report more investment in Mozambique than Mozambique itself claims. China says it has invested $1.3 bn while Mozambique claims $913 mn, and China claims $600 mn of this is equity investment, which Mozambique does not report. Similarly Ireland reports $800 mn of equity investment, while Mozambique cites only half that.
The differences are in part because much Irish, British and other investment is routed via tax havens other than Mauritius which do not report to the IMF.
The full table of 37 investing countries is in https://bit.ly/Moz-583
Covid-19 third wave hits as cases double every 4 days
There were 5901 Covid-19 cases in the week to Saturday 18 December, compared to 1540 the week before, 348 a week earlier and 32 the week before that. This is exponential growth and the 3rd wave. The disease remains southern, with about 70% of cases in Maputo city and province, and 20% in Gaza and Inhambane.
The graph below is of weekly new cases in Mozambique and is from Miguel de Brito
People
Sergio Vieira died on 16 December, aged 80. Born in Tete, he became a student militant in Portugal and was a founding member of Frelimo. He was secretary to the President during the liberation war under Eduardo Mondlane 1967-1969 and Samora Machel 1970-75 – and after independence remained secretary in the presidency under Machel 1975-77.
He was governor the Bank of Mozambique (1978-81) and managed the very successful introduction of the new currency, the Metical, which was exchanged for the old colonial escudos in 1980. He was one of many Ministers of Agriculture (1981-1983) and was Minister of Security 1984-1987.
With the death of Samora Machel in 1986 he became less influential; although always a Frelimo militant and nationalist on the left, he remained on the edge of the political elite, with various jobs. He was director of Centre for African Studies 1987-92 and Director General of the totally unsuccessful Zambezi Valley Development Office 2001-10. He wrote and published extensively and was an outspoken commentator.
I always cite him for his Domingo column about the donor consultative group meeting in 2001, in which donors gave Mozambique more money than it asked for, just after Siba-Siba Macuacua and Carlos Cardo were assassinated for trying to tackle corruption. The donor priority in those days was neo-liberalism, and Vieira pointed out that the donors recognized that “the good performance of the government … overrides the bank scandal and the assassinations of Siba-Siba Macuacua and Carlos Cardoso.”
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Important external links
Cabo Delgado civil war:
Cabo Ligado weekly report https://www.caboligado.com/
War reports, detailed maps, census data – http://bit.ly/Moz-CDg
Covid-19 daily updated data https://www.facebook.com/miguel.de.brito1 and https://covid19.ins.gov.mz/documentos-em-pdf/boletins-diarios/
Exchange rates 2006-21 & minimum wages 1996-2021 https://bit.ly/Moz-Exch-wage-2021
Secret debt trial daily reports https://bit.ly/Moz-secret-debt
Daily flood & monthly dry season reports – http://bit.ly/Moz-flood21
Cyclone trackers, https://www.cyclocane.com/ and https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
J Hanlon downloadable books: http://bit.ly/Hanlon-books
“Chickens & Beer: A recipe for agricultural Growth”: https://bit.ly/Chickens-Beer
Data on all Mozambique elections: http://bit.ly/MozElData
Previous editions of this newsletter, in pdf: http://bit.ly/MozNews2021 and bit.ly/MozNews2020, which contain many more links