Mr Tambuwal’s refusal to announce his preferred governorship candidate is giving room for speculations, especially among the supporters of the top aspirants in the Sokoto PDP.
Several politicians in Sokoto State have indicated interest to succeed Governor Aminu Tambuwal under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) but none of the aspirants is at ease as the governor has not indicated his preference.
The top six aspirants include loyalists of the governor, a renowned party loyalist and others banking on their godfather’s status in the state and the party.
Unlike in Kano and Kaduna states where Governors Abdullahi Ganduje and Nasir El Rufai have revealed their preferred candidates and asked other governorship aspirants loyal to the governors to contest for other elective offices, Mr Tambuwal has not revealed his preference.
While some supporters of the governor like Sani Dahiru said Mr Tambuwal is being a “true democrat” that would provide a level playing ground for all aspirants, political pundits said the governor is applying delay as tactics.
The candidates
The deputy governor, Manir Dan Iya, is the leading aspirant in the PDP. The son of the district head of Kware has been loyal to Mr Tambuwal though the governor was not originally his godfather.
The role Mr Dan Iya played in standing in for Mr Tambuwal when he went to contest for the presidency in 2019 endeared him to the governor. He was made the deputy governor and allowed to hold his position as the commissioner for local government and chieftaincy affairs from (2015 to 2022). He is from the central zone.
Sagir Bafarawa, the immediate former environment commissioner, is the son of the former governor, Attahiru Bafarawa. He is believed to be banking on his father’s “legacy” and political status in the state.
He lost the House of Representatives election at Isa/Sabon Birni federal constituency in 2019 but is now gunning for the top post in the state largely because the zone he comes from (Sokoto East) believes it is its turn to produce the governor.
Mr Bafarawa is also banking on the fact that his father is one of the governor’s godfathers.
His young age and inexperience may count against him but he has an extensive network of young supporters from his closeness to youth organisations and participation in higher institution politics.
Bello Aliyu (Goronyo), who is the current chairman of the PDP in the state, surprised stakeholders when he joined the contest. Mr Goronyo, who is also from the eastern part of the state, was a commissioner before Mr Tambuwal “asked him to go and hold” the party, because of what his supporters said was “his ability” to clear the mess in the party. He is no doubt one of Mr Tambuwal’s core loyalists with his supporters even saying he was ordered by the governor to buy the nomination form after almost all the other aspirants had bought theirs.
He may not have a political structure like Messrs Dan Iya and Bafarawa to reach all the delegates but the fact that he still leads the party (though there is an acting chairman) counts in his favour.
Mukhtar Shagari, a nephew of the late former President Shehu Shagari, is known as a one-man army in Sokoto politics because he does not follow any godfather. He has been in the PDP since 1999 when he was a minister under the Obasanjo administration. He was, for eight years, deputy governor to Aliyu Wamakko, but didn’t decamp to APC with Mr Wamakko in 2014. He has contested serially for governor since and remains the face of the party’s old guard in the state.
Based on education, capacity and experience, Mr Shagari stands tall among the aspirants. But there is that doubt of whether he will be loyal to Mr Tambuwal, who is even considered a political junior to Mr Shagari by some residents. His style of ‘progressive’ politics of not doling out money is considered a shortcoming among politicians but his fans like Almustapha Wadata believe he is the type of politician the state needs. Another issue is that he is from the southern zone, same as Mr Tambuwal.
Saidu Umar, the immediate former Secretary to the State Government (SSG), is another loyalist of the governor running for the top post. He is a reserved person and is seen as the intellectual bank of the Tambuwal administration. He is considered by many as the aspirant of the metropolitan areas especially because none of the three governors from 1999 to date were from metropolitan areas. He was a commissioner before his appointment as SSG.
Mr Umar is also seen as a bridge between career politicians, public servants, and religious scholars. His traditional title of Malam Ubadoman Sokoto, given to him by the Sultanate, is a testimony to his endearment to the elites. However, his lack of political structures in the other local areas is a challenge.
The issues
Observers of the state’s politics said it would be hard for the governor to declare his preferred candidate because he has everything to lose by doing so, being a presidential aspirant himself.
As it is now, Mr Dan Iya, his deputy, has been one of the frontline campaigners for Mr Tambuwal in his presidential bid. Aside from spending money for his own campaign, Mr Dan Iya has been reaching out to delegates in other states, especially in Kebbi, Zamfara and Katsina, to speak for his principal.
Like him, Messrs Goronyo and Bature are also using their positions (as PDP state chairman and National Organising Secretary respectively) to woo delegates for Mr Tambuwal.
Mr Shagari, according to his supporter Mr Wadata, postponed his declaration for the governor’s seat and followed Mr Tambuwal to Jigawa State for consultation, saying he would fight for his governor before he focuses on his own campaign.
In this respect, he is seen in the same light as the senior Bafarawa (former governor) who is seen as one of the financers of the Tambuwal campaign.
Mr Bafarawa, a businessman, is said to be using his wealth to woo delegates, especially from the South-south states where he has business and political friends in his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) days.
Observers believe it is hard for the governor to throw his weight behind any of the aspirants because that will unsettle the others and dampen their support for him.
Zoning
Another issue is of contention for the Sokoto governorship race is zoning.
Mr Tambuwal is said to be in confusion over the unofficial zoning agreement between the three senatorial zones that make up the state.
In 1999, Mr Bafarawa, from the eastern zone, won the seat under the defunct All Peoples Party, (APP) and was governor for eight years. He was followed by Aliyu Wamakko from the central zone who was also in power for eight years. The incumbent Mr Tambuwal from the southern part of the state is about to conclude his second term in office.
Three of the aspirants, Messrs Dan Iya, Bature and Umar, are from the central zone while Mr Shagari is from the southern zone alongside two other aspirants, Junior Bafarawa and Mr Goronyo.
If the past is any guide, those from the east will have a go at the slot while a deputy will be picked from either the central or southern zones.
The eastern and central zones have eight local government areas each while the south has seven.
Already, the southern zone, where Mr Tambuwal comes from, has been removed from the contest, though unofficially. That is the reason Abdulsamad Dasuki, the immediate former finance commissioner, a close friend of the governor and son of former Sultan Ibrahim Dasuki, dropped the governorship form he had bought to pick the House of Representatives form.
It is understood that zoning is one of the reasons Mr Tambuwal is yet to make up his mind on his preferred aspirant.
Another reason could be the APC factor. It is possible Mr Tambuwal will wait to see where the APC, which is enmeshed in crisis in the state, will pick its candidate from before he announces his preferred choice.
If Mr Wamakko, who is the de facto leader of the APC in Sokoto, decides to go for a former deputy to Mr Tambuwal, Ahmad Aliyu, who is from the metropolitan areas, the PDP may have no option but to also pick from the central zone to neutralise Mr Wamakko and his lieutenants.
And if the APC decides to field Faruk Malami from Mr Tambuwal’s zone (south), the governor may have to give the deputy seat to his zone for fear of Mr Wamakko’s influence.