President Cyril Ramaphosa is on the horns of a brutal political dilemma.
EITHER he puts South Africa on a collision course with the United States, and threatens thousands of South African jobs that depend on exports.
OR he puts himself on a collision course with the ANC, many of whose heavyweight members remain loyal to Russian strongman Vladimir Putin.
This latest crisis in the Ramaphosa presidency began on Thursday when News 24 reported that the US ambassador to South Africa, Reuben Brigety, said the US government believes that weapons were loaded onto a Russian naval ship, the Lady R, in December. By doing this, South Africa would have technically violated sanctions against Russia.
“Among the things we noted was the docking of the cargo ship… which we are confident uploaded weapons and ammunition onto that vessel in Simon’s Town as it made its way back to Russia,” he said.
The Rand immediately weakened – close to its lowest level ever – which means imported goods will get even more expensive, on top of already high inflation.
There is also a risk South Africa’s trading arrangements with the US are hurt, making it harder to export, and threatening jobs. South Africa benefits from American legislation called AGOA – the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act – passed in 2000 to give some African countries privileged access to the US market.
South Africa has done really well out of this – in particular the car industry in the Eastern Cape, which exports to the US. If South Africa lost AGOA access, it could be a devastating blow.
The Lady R was docked at Simon’s Town naval dockyard near Cape Town.
Ramaphosa has appointed a commission of enquiry to look into the alleged arms deal, which buys him time but does not get him out of his political hole: if he knew about the sale, he enrages the US. If he doesn’t, he looks very weak.
Ever since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the invasion in February last year, Ramaphosa’s government has been careful not to take sides.
However, the ANC’s historical friendship with Russia and Putin has raised questions over how neutral it really is.
Last month, the government said it would not be arresting Putin upon his visit to SA in August, despite the International Criminal Court issuing a warrant for his arrest for war crimes.
A planned naval exercise held jointly with Russia and China in February was condemned by the DA and the foundation of the late Archbishop Desmond Tutu.
The foundation called the drills “disgraceful” and “tantamount to a declaration that South Africa is joining the war against Ukraine”.